Key Market Events: Trump Tariffs, FY26 Kickoff, and PM Modi's Thailand Visit
The first week of April 2025 promises to be eventful for investors and market watchers, with several high-impact developments poised to influence global and domestic markets. From international trade tensions to important economic data releases, here's what to watch for in the coming days.
Global Markets Brace for Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs
Global markets face potential pressure as US President Donald Trump is set to introduce a second round of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. This move comes as part of the administration's ongoing trade policy adjustments and could significantly impact international trade relations and market sentiment worldwide.
Investors will be closely monitoring how these tariffs affect various sectors and the potential retaliatory measures from trading partners. The implications could be particularly significant for export-oriented economies and companies with substantial exposure to US markets.
New Financial Year 2026 Begins
April 1 marks the beginning of the new financial year (FY26) in India, bringing with it fresh economic targets, budget implementations, and corporate planning cycles. This transition comes after a positive close to FY25, with the Nifty rising 6.99% and Sensex gaining 6.78% over the fiscal year.
The benchmark indices have shown resilience in recent months, with March seeing the Nifty end 6.30% higher and the Sensex close 5.76% up, snapping their multi-month losing streaks. This positive momentum provides an encouraging backdrop for the start of the new financial year.
PM Modi's Diplomatic Mission to Thailand and Sri Lanka
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Thailand and Sri Lanka between April 4 and April 6, where he will attend the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit. This diplomatic engagement could potentially yield trade agreements and regional cooperation initiatives that might influence certain sectors of the Indian economy.
The visit underscores India's continued focus on strengthening relationships with neighboring countries and enhancing regional economic cooperation, potentially opening new avenues for trade and investment.
Key Economic Data Releases
Several important economic indicators are scheduled for release during the week:
- India's Balance of Payments for Q4 and current account as a percentage of GDP
- Infrastructure output data for February
- Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March (Wednesday)
- Nikkei Services PMI for March (Friday)
- Foreign exchange reserves data (Friday)
These indicators will provide valuable insights into India's economic health as it enters the new fiscal year. Particular attention will be paid to the manufacturing and services PMI figures, which serve as leading indicators of economic activity.
Global Economic Indicators to Watch
Internationally, several key data points will be released that could influence global market sentiment:
- Australia's retail sales for February and Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision
- China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March
- US Manufacturing PMI, ISM data, and construction spending
- US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (Friday)
- OPEC meeting (Thursday)
Of particular significance is the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, which will be closely watched as an indicator of global monetary policy trends. Additionally, the OPEC meeting could impact oil prices, affecting energy-related stocks and overall market sentiment.
Primary Market Activity
The primary market in India is expected to remain relatively quiet during the week, with no major mainboard IPOs scheduled. This follows a notable slowdown in March, which saw a complete absence of mainboard offerings throughout the month.
Currently active SME IPOs include Infonative Solutions Ltd., Spinaroo Commercial Ltd., and Retaggio Industries Ltd., offering some opportunities for investors interested in the small and medium enterprise segment.
Corporate Actions
Several companies will have significant corporate actions during the week:
- RailTel Corp., United Spirits Ltd., and Varun Beverages Ltd. shares will turn ex-date for interim dividends
- Ranjeet Mechatronics Ltd. and Sal Automotive Ltd. shares will turn ex-date for their bonus issues
Investors holding these stocks should take note of these dates as they could affect the trading patterns and valuations of these securities.
Market Outlook
As markets enter the new fiscal year, the overall sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, backed by the positive close to FY25. However, challenges remain, particularly from global trade tensions and potential volatility in international markets.
Investors would be wise to monitor both domestic economic data and global developments closely, especially the impact of Trump's tariffs and the outcomes of key central bank decisions. These factors, combined with the start of the new fiscal year, could set the tone for market performance in the early months of FY26.
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