India's Goods Trade Deficit Hits 42-Month Low as Gold, Silver and Crude Imports Decline
India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed significantly to a 42-month low of $14.05 billion in February 2025, driven primarily by reduced imports of gold, silver, and crude oil, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This marks a substantial improvement from the $22.9 billion deficit recorded in January 2025 and the $19.5 billion deficit seen in February 2024.
Sharp Decline in Precious Metals and Crude Imports
A key factor contributing to the narrowed deficit was the notable reduction in precious metals imports. Gold and silver imports plummeted to $2.7 billion in February 2025, reaching their lowest level since June 2024, when imports stood at $2.5 billion.
Similarly, crude oil and petroleum imports fell to $11.89 billion, marking the lowest figure since July 2023, when imports were valued at $11.81 billion. This significant reduction in high-value imports has played a crucial role in improving India's trade balance.
Overall Import-Export Performance
India's export performance showed some weakness with goods exports valued at $36.9 billion in February 2025. More notably, imports declined to a 22-month low of $50.9 billion, representing a substantial drop in the country's import bill.
On a year-on-year basis, exports experienced a 10.84% decline in February 2025 compared to the same month last year. According to Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at credit rating agency ICRA, "A portion of the YoY decline in merchandise exports can be attributed to the base year effect related to the leap month."
The import figures showed an even steeper decline, with a 16.3% contraction in February 2025 compared to February 2024. This significant reduction in imports has been instrumental in narrowing the trade deficit to multi-year lows.
Positive Outlook for Current Account Balance
The substantially reduced trade deficit presents a positive outlook for India's current account balance. The February deficit of $14.05 billion is significantly lower than the average deficit of over $23 billion recorded during the first ten months of FY2025.
This improvement has led experts to revise their forecasts for India's current account. "Given this, we now expect the current account to witness a surplus of around $5 billion in Q4 of FY2025, equivalent to around 0.5% of the GDP, in the ongoing quarter," noted Ms. Nayar from ICRA.
Services Trade Remains Strong
India's services sector continues to demonstrate resilience and growth. In February 2025, services exports reached $35.03 billion, while services imports stood at $16.55 billion. These figures represent significant growth compared to February 2024, when services exports and imports were $28.33 billion and $15.23 billion, respectively.
The robust performance of the services sector has provided additional support to India's overall trade balance, helping to offset some of the challenges faced in merchandise trade.
Global Trade Context and Future Outlook
The latest trade data takes on added significance against the backdrop of a depreciating Indian currency and persistent uncertainties in global trade policies, particularly from the United States. Despite these challenges, India remains committed to expanding its international trade relationships.
Trade Secretary Sunil Barthwal emphasized that "India is proactively engaged with the U.S. to address concerns of both countries and expand trade to $500 billion." This underscores India's commitment to resolving trade tensions and fostering stronger economic ties with key trading partners.
The significant reduction in the trade deficit, if sustained, could help stabilize the Indian rupee and improve market sentiment toward the Indian economy. However, analysts will be closely monitoring whether this improvement represents a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a more enduring trend in India's external trade position.
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