China’s Trade Surplus Touches Record $1.2 Trillion as December Exports Exceed Forecasts
Strong Export Momentum Lifts Annual Trade Balance
China’s trade performance in 2025 ended on a strong note, with exports in December significantly outperforming market expectations. Robust overseas shipments helped push the country’s annual trade surplus to a historic high of nearly $1.2 trillion, underscoring the continued resilience of external demand despite global economic headwinds.
According to official customs data, exports rose 6.6% in U.S. dollar terms in December compared with the same period last year. This marked a clear acceleration from November’s 5.9% growth and comfortably surpassed market expectations of around 3% growth.
Imports Rebound at Fastest Pace in Three Months
Imports also surprised on the upside, increasing 5.7% year-on-year in December. This was well above expectations of less than 1% growth and represented the strongest import expansion since September, when inbound shipments grew 7.4%.
The rebound in imports suggests a degree of stabilization in domestic demand, even as the broader economy continues to face structural challenges. However, on a full-year basis, imports remained largely unchanged compared to 2024.
Full-Year Trade Data Highlights Growing Imbalance
For the entire year, China’s exports expanded 5.5%, while imports were flat. This divergence resulted in a trade surplus of approximately $1.19 trillion, the highest ever recorded for the country.
While export growth has provided critical support to overall economic activity, it has also amplified concerns among global trading partners about rising trade imbalances.
Shifting Trade Patterns and Global Concerns
Trade tensions with the United States weighed heavily on bilateral trade for much of the year, leading to double-digit declines in Chinese shipments to the U.S. market during several months. In response, exporters increasingly redirected goods toward non-U.S. destinations.
This strategic shift has drawn scrutiny from major economies, particularly in Europe, where policymakers have expressed concerns over the widening trade gap. International institutions have also urged China to rebalance its growth model.
Calls for Stronger Domestic Consumption
Global economic leaders have encouraged Beijing to reduce its reliance on exports and focus more on boosting domestic consumption. Chinese policymakers have reiterated their commitment to expanding imports and gradually working toward a more balanced trade structure.
Market economists expect authorities to maintain a steady macroeconomic policy stance in the near term, as strong export performance helps offset soft domestic demand and easing trade frictions provide short-term relief.
Economic Outlook Remains Mixed
China is scheduled to release its annual and fourth-quarter economic growth data next week. Analysts expect the economy to have expanded by around 4.5% in the final quarter, slightly below the government’s full-year growth target of approximately 5%.
The nearly $19 trillion economy continues to grapple with deflationary pressures. A prolonged downturn in the real estate sector, subdued household spending, and a fragile job market have weighed on consumer confidence. Consumer inflation remained flat in 2025, falling short of the official target of around 2%.
Conclusion
China’s record trade surplus highlights the strength of its export sector at a time when domestic challenges persist. While external demand has provided a vital buffer for growth, policymakers face increasing pressure to rebalance the economy toward sustainable, consumption-driven expansion.
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