Gold Prices in India: Weekly Outlook (Jan 19-25)

Mixed Trend in Gold and Silver Prices

Gold prices in India have continued their upward momentum this week, driven by better-than-expected US inflation data that has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. However, on Saturday, January 18, a mixed trend was observed in gold and silver prices. While 24K gold prices dipped by ₹1,600 per 100 grams, silver prices remained unchanged. Despite this dip, gold prices per 10 grams still remain above the ₹81,000 mark.

Gold Price Overview

In the week ahead, gold and silver are expected to trade within the ranges of ₹77,000-₹80,000 and ₹90,000-₹95,000, respectively. 24K gold prices in India decreased by ₹1,600 per 100 grams, settling at ₹8,11,100, while the 10 gram gold price dipped by ₹160 to ₹81,110. 22K gold prices slipped by ₹1,500 to ₹7,43,500 per 100 grams, with a decrease of ₹150 per 10 grams to ₹74,350. Additionally, 18K gold prices tumbled by ₹1,300 to ₹6,08,300 per 100 grams, and the 10-gram price is lower by ₹130 to ₹60,830.

Silver Price Overview

Silver prices remained unchanged on January 18, with 1 kg of silver priced at ₹96,500. However, in cities like Chennai, Hyderabad, and Kerala, silver prices have reached ₹1,04,000 per 1 kg.

MCX Gold and Silver Prices

MCX gold prices with February 2025 expiry were broadly flat on Friday, at ₹79,019 per 10 grams. MCX silver prices were marginally lower, at ₹91,504 per 1 kg.

Spot Gold Prices

According to Trading Economics data, spot gold prices traded around $2,710 per ounce on Friday, hovering near a one-month high and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Recent US economic data has rekindled hopes of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Factors Driving Gold Prices

SMC Global Securities noted that gold recorded its third consecutive weekly gain due to US inflation data, raising expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, gold surged over 1%, reaching its highest level since December 12, as weak US economic data pushed Treasury yields lower and pressured the dollar. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming policies has also increased gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and short-term volatility. Analysts believe his measures could further fuel inflation, supporting gold as a safe-haven asset.

Economic Indicators

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in December, up from 0.3% in November. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.2% annualized, below expectations. Labor market softness was highlighted by initial jobless claims rising to 217,000 last week. These data points have reinforced expectations for 37 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end.

On COMEX, gold prices are hovering near $2,760, with a potential rally to $2,820 if this resistance is breached and sustained, or a decline to $2,680 if it fails. Silver is expected to trade between $29.10 and $32.50.

Weekly Outlook and Geopolitical Factors

In the week ahead, SMC’s note indicates that on MCX, gold may trade in the ₹77,500-₹80,000 range, while silver could range between ₹87,000 and ₹94,000. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions persist, adding to market uncertainty.

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