Trump's 26% Reciprocal Tariff on India: Impact Analysis and Economic Implications

US President Donald Trump has unveiled extensive reciprocal tariff proposals during his "Liberation Day" address on April 2, 2025. The announcement includes a 26% "discounted" tariff on Indian goods, part of a broader strategy to counter what Trump describes as unfair trade practices by foreign nations.

Understanding Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Strategy

During his White House address, President Trump displayed a comprehensive chart of proposed tariffs on imports from various countries. The announced rates include:

• China: 34%
• India: 26%
• European Union: 20%
• South Korea: 25%
• Japan: 24%
• Vietnam: 46%
• Taiwan: 32%

Trump's decision is based on his assertion that foreign nations have been imposing significantly higher tariffs on US goods. According to the President, while the US has traditionally maintained low import duties, countries like India have implemented tariffs as high as 52% on American products.

"April 2nd, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to Make America Wealthy Again," Trump declared during his address. "Taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years, but it is not going to happen anymore."

Sectoral Impact on Indian Exports

The precise impact of these tariffs will vary across different sectors of the Indian economy. Initial analyses suggest:

Pharmaceutical Sector

The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance has expressed relief as pharmaceuticals have been excluded from the tariff list. Secretary General Sudarshan Jain highlighted the strengthening India-US commercial relationship through Mission 500, which aims to achieve $500 billion in bilateral trade.

Agricultural Exports

According to agricultural economist Ashok Gulati, India may actually maintain or even increase its agricultural exports to the US despite the new tariffs. This is because competing countries face even higher duty rates, potentially giving Indian agricultural products a comparative advantage in the US market.

High-Risk Sectors

Citi Research has identified several vulnerable sectors:

• Chemicals: High exposure to tariff impacts
• Metal products: Significant vulnerability
• Jewelry: Potential annual losses with pearls and gems exports worth $8.5 billion at stake
• Automobiles: Substantial exposure

Is India Relatively Insulated?

Several global research institutions suggest that India may be better positioned than many other economies to weather these tariff changes:

An SBI Research report projects a modest reduction of approximately 3 to 3.5% in Indian exports to the US, assuming tariffs between 15-20%. The report notes that India's strategic approach to export diversification, emphasis on value addition, and exploration of alternative markets would help offset the effects.

Goldman Sachs points out that India's gross exports to the US are among the lowest among its Emerging Market peers. Similarly, Fitch indicates that India's low reliance on external demand makes it "somewhat insulated" from tariff shocks.

Nomura's findings position India as one of Asia's most resilient economies in the ongoing trade conflict, with exports to the US constituting only 2.2% of its GDP. This is significantly lower than Vietnam's exposure at 25.1% or Taiwan's at 6.3%.

Potential Advantages for India

Despite the challenges, some analyses suggest India could potentially benefit from certain aspects of the global tariff situation:

• India faces lower tariffs (26%) compared to China (34%) and Vietnam (46%), which could create growth opportunities in telecommunications and textile manufacturing
• The country might experience increased export opportunities in areas where US buyers seek alternatives to suppliers affected by higher tariff barriers
• Electronics, pharmaceuticals, and textiles sectors could benefit, particularly as they align with the "Make in India" program
• India's emerging status as a manufacturing alternative to China, combined with its independence from major trade groups like the EU, could make it an attractive supplier

However, these advantages are likely to be limited and temporary. A widespread trade conflict would increase import costs for crucial inputs, potentially leading to higher inflation and reduced government fiscal flexibility.

India's Strategic Response

The Indian government is actively developing a comprehensive strategy to strengthen economic ties with the United States:

• Both nations have established a timeline to finalize the initial phase of their agreement by September-October 2025
• They have set an ambitious goal to increase two-way trade from the current $190 billion to $500 billion by 2030
• The commerce ministry has created various models to assess the impact of different tariff scenarios
• Officials are engaging with local manufacturers to understand non-tariff obstacles their products face in the US market
• India is prepared to offer reduced tariffs on specific products and enhanced incentives to establish itself as a credible alternative to Chinese manufacturing

Despite the challenges posed by these new tariffs, global economists continue to project that India will maintain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy in the coming years.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Major Relief for Indian Pharmaceutical Industry as US Exempts Sector from New Tariffs

In a significant development for India's pharmaceutical industry, US President Donald Trump has exempted pharmaceutical products from the newly implemented reciprocal tariffs. This exemption represents a crucial reprieve for one of India's most valuable export sectors to the American market.

Key Exemptions in the Reciprocal Tariff Policy

According to a factsheet released by the White House on April 3, 2025, several categories of goods will not be subject to the new reciprocal tariff regime. The exempted categories include:

• Articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b)
• Steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs
• Pharmaceuticals, along with copper, semiconductors, and lumber articles
• All articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs
• Bullion
• Energy and certain minerals not available in the United States

This exemption is particularly significant for the Indian pharmaceutical sector, as the US market accounts for 30% of its overall exports. The decision underscores the strategic importance of India's role in supplying affordable medications to the American healthcare system.

Industry Response

The Indian pharmaceutical industry has welcomed this decision with enthusiasm. Sudarshan Jain, Secretary General of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA), highlighted the broader implications of this exemption:

"India and the U.S. share a strong and growing bilateral trade relationship, with a shared vision to double trade to $500 billion under the Mission 500 initiative. Pharmaceuticals remain a cornerstone of this partnership, as India plays a vital role in global and U.S. healthcare by ensuring a steady supply of affordable medicines."

Industry experts note that this exemption recognizes the critical role that Indian generic medicines play in maintaining public health, economic stability, and even national security for the United States. The decision is viewed as an acknowledgment of the interdependence between the two nations in the healthcare sector.

Broader Trade Relations and Challenges

While pharmaceuticals received an exemption, the White House factsheet also pointed to several areas where trade frictions remain. The document specifically mentioned that India imposes "uniquely burdensome" and/or duplicative testing and certification requirements in several sectors including:

• Chemicals
• Telecommunication products
• Medical devices

According to the White House assessment, these requirements make it difficult or costly for American companies to sell their products in the Indian market. The factsheet claimed that "if these barriers were removed, it is estimated that U.S. exports would increase by at least $5.3 billion annually."

Strategic Importance of the Pharmaceutical Sector

The exemption of pharmaceuticals from reciprocal tariffs highlights the strategic nature of this industry in US-India relations. Several factors contribute to this special status:

Supply Chain Security

India serves as a critical supplier of generic medications to the United States, helping to ensure continuity in the pharmaceutical supply chain. This relationship became especially evident during the global pandemic when supply chain resilience gained heightened attention.

Healthcare Cost Management

Indian generic medicines play a crucial role in keeping healthcare costs manageable in the United States. With increasing focus on healthcare affordability, maintaining access to cost-effective medications remains a priority for American policymakers.

Bilateral Trade Balance

The pharmaceutical sector represents one of India's strengths in its trade relationship with the United States. At a time when overall trade balances are under scrutiny, this sector provides India with a competitive advantage that has now been preserved through the tariff exemption.

Outlook for US-India Trade Relations

This targeted exemption for pharmaceuticals may signal a nuanced approach to trade relations between the United States and India. While implementing broader reciprocal tariffs, the Trump administration has demonstrated willingness to recognize and preserve strategically important trade flows.

For investors in the Indian pharmaceutical sector, this development represents positive news that could potentially support continued growth in exports to the US market. Companies with significant exposure to the US healthcare system stand to benefit from this policy decision.

As both nations work toward their stated goal of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion under the Mission 500 initiative, the pharmaceutical industry is positioned to remain a cornerstone of this expanding economic relationship.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Indian Steel Industry Faces Mounting Pressure from EU's Stringent Carbon Regulations

India's steel sector, the second-largest globally, is confronting a significant challenge in 2025 as the European Union intensifies its environmental regulations and pushes toward carbon neutrality. This regulatory shift threatens to reshape the competitive landscape of the global steel market, with potentially far-reaching implications for Indian manufacturers and investors.

Critical Threat to Export Markets

According to recent analysis, India's prominent position in the global steel market could be seriously compromised if the industry fails to rapidly adapt to the EU's stricter carbon regulations. With Europe representing 25% of India's steel exports, the stakes are exceptionally high for domestic producers.

Energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy warns that non-compliance with these environmental standards could result in substantial financial penalties, potentially undermining the competitiveness of Indian steel in international markets.

Rising Carbon Costs: A Financial Burden

Steel production in India could face some of the highest carbon costs globally, with potential levies reaching up to $397 per tonne by 2034, according to Rystad Energy's projections. This estimate assumes that carbon prices remain relatively stable over the coming decade.

Alistair Ramsay, Vice President of Supply Chain at Rystad Energy, emphasizes that "reducing carbon emissions could extend beyond regulatory compliance and become a competitive necessity as buyer sentiment continues to evolve." This observation highlights the dual pressure of regulatory requirements and shifting market preferences toward greener products.

EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism represents a pivotal policy shift that will have profound implications for steel exporters. Set to begin implementation next year and become fully operational by 2034, CBAM will impose carbon costs on imports based on their embedded carbon emissions.

For Indian steel producers, this mechanism could translate to a potential surcharge of up to $80 per tonne by 2030 unless they adopt cleaner production technologies. With India's steel production generating higher carbon emissions than most global competitors according to the EU's Joint Research Centre, the industry faces a particularly steep challenge.

Competitive Landscape Shifts

The increasing carbon costs are jeopardizing India's competitiveness in the European market. As Indian steel becomes less attractive compared to lower-emission alternatives, the country risks losing its position among the top steel producers globally.

Rystad Energy predicts that this situation could lead to South Korea and Turkey replacing India among the top three steel producers—a significant reshuffling of the global steel hierarchy with substantial implications for investors in these markets.

Transition Challenges

India's steelmaking remains heavily reliant on coal, making the transition to low-carbon alternatives particularly challenging. Shifting to natural gas-based ironmaking or green hydrogen will require substantial investment and technological innovation.

"With limited time for transition, India must confront the carbon cost challenge in front of them, as early adopters of greener production methods could gain a stronger competitive edge in global markets," notes Ramsay.

Strategic Adaptations

Both the Indian government and major steel companies are adjusting their strategies in response to these evolving policies:

• In December 2024, India's government launched a green steel classification system within the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme
• Steel producing less than 2.2 tonnes of CO2 per tonne is classified as 'green', while production with emissions below 1.6 tonnes receives a five-star rating
• Discussions are underway to mandate the use of green steel in public sector projects, potentially reshaping domestic demand

Industry Leaders' Response

India's top five steel producers—Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, Steel Authority of India, and AM/NS India—are implementing various strategies to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2045:

Tata Steel's Initiatives

Tata Steel is making significant strides toward low-carbon steel production by:

• Commissioning a 0.75 Mtpa electric arc furnace plant in Ludhiana by March
• Investing in a carbon capture plant in Jamshedpur
• Securing 379 MW of captive renewable power

JSW Steel's Approach

JSW Steel, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, has:

• Raised $500 million through sustainability-linked bonds
• Committed $1 billion to decarbonization efforts
• Plans to expand production using low-carbon technologies
• Initiatives to incorporate biomass and hydrogen into steel-making processes

Growth vs. Emissions Reduction

India's domestic steel giants are projected to reach a combined production of 189 Mtpa by 2035 due to major capacity expansions. While this growth is essential to meet both domestic and global demand, it creates tension with emission reduction goals.

Currently, these companies are projected to reduce emissions by just 43% over the next decade—significantly short of the levels required to meet strict EU standards and avoid CBAM-related costs.

If this trajectory continues, Indian steelmakers could face carbon costs of up to $116 per tonne by 2034, assuming a carbon price of $100 per tonne, according to Rystad's estimates.

Investment Implications

For investors in the steel sector, these developments signal important strategic considerations. Companies that lead in adopting green technologies may gain competitive advantages, while those that lag in adaptation could face significant financial penalties and market access restrictions.

The transition toward greener steel production represents both a challenge and an opportunity for forward-thinking investors looking to position themselves advantageously in a carbon-constrained future.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Mahindra Records Impressive Growth: SUV Sales Up 18%, Tractor Sales Surge 34% in March 2025

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has concluded March 2025 with remarkable sales performance across its diverse product portfolio. The Indian automotive giant reported substantial growth in its passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and farm equipment segments, reinforcing its position as a market leader in multiple sectors.

Strong Overall Performance

The company registered total sales of 83,894 units in March 2025, achieving an impressive year-over-year (YoY) growth of 23% when compared to the same period last year. This comprehensive figure encompasses both domestic sales and exports across all vehicle categories.

In the domestic market, Mahindra's performance was particularly noteworthy with 48,048 units sold. A distinctive achievement is that every single one of these vehicles was an SUV, a unique accomplishment not matched by any other automotive manufacturer in India.

SUV Segment: Continued Dominance

Mahindra's SUV lineup maintained its strong market presence with domestic sales of 48,048 units in March 2025, representing an 18% YoY growth compared to the 40,631 units sold in March 2024. This translates to a volume increase of 7,414 units year-over-year.

For the entire fiscal year 2024-25, Mahindra's SUV sales reached a milestone of 5,51,487 units, marking a 20% growth compared to the 4,59,864 units sold in the previous fiscal year. This achievement highlights the sustained popularity of Mahindra's SUV portfolio among Indian consumers.

When compared to February 2025's performance of 50,420 units, March witnessed a slight month-on-month decrease of 4.70% (2,372 fewer units). With exports included, Mahindra's total SUV sales for March 2025 stood at 50,835 units.

Commercial Vehicle Segment: Mixed Results

Mahindra's commercial vehicle division showed varied performance across different subcategories:

• Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) in the 2T-3.5T capacity range maintained market leadership with 18,958 units sold, registering a robust 23% YoY growth
• LCVs with less than 2T capacity faced challenges, with sales of 3,530 units representing a 12% YoY decline
• The LCV >3.5T and Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV) segment recorded 1,463 units sold, with a 4% YoY decrease
• Three-wheeler sales showed exceptional growth, with 7,752 units sold, achieving a 47% YoY increase compared to 5,279 units in March 2024

Export Performance

Mahindra's export numbers were particularly impressive in March 2025, with the company shipping 4,143 units, representing an extraordinary 163% YoY growth compared to the 1,573 units exported in March 2024.

Farm Equipment Sector: Exceptional Growth

Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector (FES) demonstrated remarkable performance in March 2025:

• Domestic tractor sales reached 32,582 units, recording a 34% YoY growth
• Export figures stood at 2,352 units, showing a 35% YoY increase
• Total tractor sales (domestic + exports) amounted to 34,934 units, resulting in an overall 34% YoY growth

The company achieved its highest-ever annual tractor sales in FY 2024-25 with a growth of 12%, driven by strong retail performance nationwide and historically low dealer inventory levels.

Leadership Perspectives

Commenting on the impressive performance, Veejay Nakra, President of Automotive Division at M&M Ltd., stated: "In March, we sold a total of 48,048 SUVs, with a growth of 18% and 83,894 total vehicles, a 23% growth over last year. We also started the deliveries of our Electric Origin SUVs, where we see a strong continued demand momentum. The year ended on a very positive note with us selling over 5 lakh SUVs in the domestic market for the first time ever."

Hemant Sikka, President of the Farm Equipment Sector at Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., attributed the strong tractor sales to "favorable weather conditions, good reservoir levels, strong rabi outlook and positive terms of trade for farmers." He noted that the harvest season has begun in northern regions and is expected to progress smoothly across the country, with delivery momentum picking up in late March due to festivities. This positive trend is anticipated to continue into Q1 FY26, supported by expectations of a good Rabi crop harvest and improved farmer cash flows.

Outlook

Mahindra's strong performance across multiple segments positions the company for continued growth in the new fiscal year. The successful launch of Electric Origin SUVs adds a new dimension to the company's product portfolio, while the record-breaking tractor sales indicate strong momentum in the agricultural sector.

For investors and market watchers, Mahindra's consistent growth trajectory and strategic expansion into electric vehicles present promising opportunities in both automotive and farm equipment sectors.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Gold Prices Soar to Historic Heights Following Best Quarter Since 1986 Amid Tariff Concerns

Gold prices reached unprecedented levels on Tuesday, April 1, 2025, as market uncertainty surrounding new US tariff policies drove investors toward safe-haven assets. The precious metal continues its impressive rally after recording its strongest quarterly performance in nearly four decades.

Record-Breaking Performance in Global and Indian Markets

Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $3,142.83 per ounce in early trading, after touching a record high of $3,145.38 earlier in the session. US gold futures similarly advanced by 0.7% to $3,171.80 per ounce.

The Indian market also witnessed remarkable gains, with gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surpassing ₹91,300 per 10 grams at opening—an all-time high for the domestic market. This surge represents significant momentum in the precious metals sector amid growing economic concerns.

Driving Factors Behind Gold's Meteoric Rise

Several key factors are propelling gold's current bullish run:

Impending US Tariff Policies

Market sentiment has been significantly impacted by US President Donald Trump's upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" announcement, scheduled for April 2—referred to by the administration as "Liberation Day." These measures are expected to target all nations, with additional tariffs on automobiles potentially being implemented from April 3.

According to Yeap Jun Rong, Market Strategist at IG, "The anticipation of the April 2 US reciprocal tariffs has prompted investors to hedge against market volatility by moving into gold." Market analysts fear these protective measures could potentially trigger a global trade conflict, slow economic growth, weaken equity markets, and potentially accelerate inflation—all factors that traditionally support gold prices.

Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. Recent comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated that maintaining current interest rates "for some time" would allow policymakers to thoroughly analyze economic data before making adjustments. This relatively dovish stance has provided additional support for gold prices.

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic indicators—including job openings data, ADP employment figures, and non-farm payrolls—which will offer further insights into the Federal Reserve's potential rate-cut trajectory for the remainder of 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, observed that gold's record performance is also driven by "weak equity markets and geopolitical tensions. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Trump's statements regarding Iran have further intensified safe-haven demand."

Market Performance Indicators

While gold surges, the broader market shows significant movement across various sectors. The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) has reported several notable performers:

• Radiant Cash Management Services recorded a 19.99% gain, reaching ₹61.29
• ORCHASP increased by 19.72% to ₹2.61
• Birla Cable rose 19.09% to ₹159.44
• Kanani Industries gained 16.36% to reach ₹1.92
• Hester Biosciences climbed 15.11% to ₹1,444.00

Investment Outlook

Analysts suggest gold's bullish momentum is likely to continue in the near term as uncertainty persists in global trade relations. Investors should closely monitor developments in US trade policies, international reactions to these policies, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central bank decisions worldwide.

For retail investors, this period of gold price appreciation presents both opportunities and considerations. While gold continues to demonstrate its value as a portfolio hedge during uncertain times, the elevated price levels may warrant careful entry point analysis for new positions.

The precious metal's performance through the remainder of Q2 2025 will largely depend on how global markets respond to the implementation of new tariff measures and subsequent economic data releases that might influence monetary policy decisions.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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United Spirits Sells Prestigious Malabar Hill Property for ₹172 Crore

United Spirits Limited (USL) has completed a significant real estate transaction, selling a premium residential property in Mumbai's upscale Malabar Hill neighborhood for ₹172 crore. The company's Board of Directors approved the sale on March 30, 2025, marking another strategic move in the alcoholic beverage giant's asset management strategy.

Property Details and Transaction Structure

The sold property is an impressive residence comprising three levels - a ground floor and two upper floors - complete with furniture, fixtures, and fittings. Located in Malabar Hill, one of Mumbai's most prestigious and expensive residential areas, the property represents a valuable asset in the company's portfolio.

The buyers, Ajaykumar Dineshkumar Vaghani and Manisha Ajay Vaghani, will bear all applicable charges related to the transaction, including:

• Stamp duty
• Registration fees
• Applicable taxes

According to USL's regulatory filing, the transaction was conducted at arm's length and does not qualify as a related party transaction under applicable regulations.

Regulatory Compliance and Disclosure

United Spirits Limited made the disclosure to both the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) in compliance with Regulation 30 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015.

The company explicitly stated that the buyers have no connection with USL's promoters, promoter group, or group companies, ensuring full transparency in the transaction. Furthermore, the agreement does not grant any special rights to the buyers, such as:

• Right to appoint directors
• First right to share subscription
• Restrictions on changes in capital structure

Market Implications

This property sale represents a significant real estate transaction in Mumbai's luxury housing market, where Malabar Hill continues to be one of the most sought-after residential locations. The area is known for commanding premium prices due to its exclusivity, sea views, and proximity to Mumbai's business districts.

For United Spirits Limited, the transaction potentially signals ongoing portfolio optimization as the company focuses on its core alcoholic beverage business. The ₹172 crore consideration could provide additional liquidity for strategic investments or returning value to shareholders.

About United Spirits Limited

United Spirits Limited is one of India's leading alcoholic beverage companies with a diverse portfolio of brands across various price segments. The company, which became part of global spirits giant Diageo's portfolio in 2014, has been strategically managing its assets to optimize performance and shareholder value.

Real estate transactions of this magnitude reflect the company's continued focus on efficient capital allocation and non-core asset monetization. Investors and market analysts will likely monitor how USL deploys the proceeds from this significant property sale.

The transaction aligns with broader trends in corporate India, where companies are increasingly reassessing their real estate holdings to unlock value and redirect capital toward core business operations and growth opportunities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Key Market Events: Trump Tariffs, FY26 Kickoff, and PM Modi's Thailand Visit

The first week of April 2025 promises to be eventful for investors and market watchers, with several high-impact developments poised to influence global and domestic markets. From international trade tensions to important economic data releases, here's what to watch for in the coming days.

Global Markets Brace for Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

Global markets face potential pressure as US President Donald Trump is set to introduce a second round of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. This move comes as part of the administration's ongoing trade policy adjustments and could significantly impact international trade relations and market sentiment worldwide.

Investors will be closely monitoring how these tariffs affect various sectors and the potential retaliatory measures from trading partners. The implications could be particularly significant for export-oriented economies and companies with substantial exposure to US markets.

New Financial Year 2026 Begins

April 1 marks the beginning of the new financial year (FY26) in India, bringing with it fresh economic targets, budget implementations, and corporate planning cycles. This transition comes after a positive close to FY25, with the Nifty rising 6.99% and Sensex gaining 6.78% over the fiscal year.

The benchmark indices have shown resilience in recent months, with March seeing the Nifty end 6.30% higher and the Sensex close 5.76% up, snapping their multi-month losing streaks. This positive momentum provides an encouraging backdrop for the start of the new financial year.

PM Modi's Diplomatic Mission to Thailand and Sri Lanka

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Thailand and Sri Lanka between April 4 and April 6, where he will attend the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit. This diplomatic engagement could potentially yield trade agreements and regional cooperation initiatives that might influence certain sectors of the Indian economy.

The visit underscores India's continued focus on strengthening relationships with neighboring countries and enhancing regional economic cooperation, potentially opening new avenues for trade and investment.

Key Economic Data Releases

Several important economic indicators are scheduled for release during the week:

• India's Balance of Payments for Q4 and current account as a percentage of GDP
• Infrastructure output data for February
• Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March (Wednesday)
• Nikkei Services PMI for March (Friday)
• Foreign exchange reserves data (Friday)

These indicators will provide valuable insights into India's economic health as it enters the new fiscal year. Particular attention will be paid to the manufacturing and services PMI figures, which serve as leading indicators of economic activity.

Global Economic Indicators to Watch

Internationally, several key data points will be released that could influence global market sentiment:

• Australia's retail sales for February and Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision
• China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for March
• US Manufacturing PMI, ISM data, and construction spending
• US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate (Friday)
• OPEC meeting (Thursday)

Of particular significance is the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, which will be closely watched as an indicator of global monetary policy trends. Additionally, the OPEC meeting could impact oil prices, affecting energy-related stocks and overall market sentiment.

Primary Market Activity

The primary market in India is expected to remain relatively quiet during the week, with no major mainboard IPOs scheduled. This follows a notable slowdown in March, which saw a complete absence of mainboard offerings throughout the month.

Currently active SME IPOs include Infonative Solutions Ltd., Spinaroo Commercial Ltd., and Retaggio Industries Ltd., offering some opportunities for investors interested in the small and medium enterprise segment.

Corporate Actions

Several companies will have significant corporate actions during the week:

• RailTel Corp., United Spirits Ltd., and Varun Beverages Ltd. shares will turn ex-date for interim dividends
• Ranjeet Mechatronics Ltd. and Sal Automotive Ltd. shares will turn ex-date for their bonus issues

Investors holding these stocks should take note of these dates as they could affect the trading patterns and valuations of these securities.

Market Outlook

As markets enter the new fiscal year, the overall sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, backed by the positive close to FY25. However, challenges remain, particularly from global trade tensions and potential volatility in international markets.

Investors would be wise to monitor both domestic economic data and global developments closely, especially the impact of Trump's tariffs and the outcomes of key central bank decisions. These factors, combined with the start of the new fiscal year, could set the tone for market performance in the early months of FY26.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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