Nifty's Record Losing Streak: Is a Market Rebound Imminent?

Nifty's Longest Losing Streak Since 1996: Is a Reversal on the Horizon?

The Indian equity index Nifty concluded February with its fifth consecutive monthly decline, marking its longest losing streak since its inception in 1996. This prolonged slump has eroded approximately Rs 85 lakh crore in investor wealth from its peak in late September, leaving many portfolios significantly impacted.

Historical Context of Nifty Declines

Historically, Nifty has experienced prolonged declines of four or more months only six times. One notable period occurred from September 1994 to April 1995, before Nifty's official launch, during which the index plummeted by 31.4% over eight consecutive months (based on backdated calculations). Since its launch in April 1996, the worst monthly losing streak occurred from July to November 1996, with a 26% drop over five months.

In contrast, the current decline has been relatively milder, with an 11.68% drop over the last five months. Previous declines often reached double-digit percentages.

Market Carnage Since September Peak

Since the market peaked on September 27, investors have witnessed a substantial erosion of wealth. The total market capitalization of BSE-listed companies has decreased by Rs 85 lakh crore to Rs 393 lakh crore. Nifty has declined by 14% from its peak, while the Nifty Next 50 has fallen nearly 25%. Smallcap and microcap stocks have experienced even steeper declines, plummeting by 24-25%, pushing them into bear market territory.

Expert Analysis and Market Outlook

Emkay Global views the correction as a de-frothing of valuations, making Nifty more attractive below 22,500 levels, at 19.2x 1YF P/E. They consider financials as the best trade amid RBI’s easing stance but recommend using this opportunity to lighten positions due to valuations being out of sync with medium-term growth. Their preferred sectors include consumer discretionary, healthcare, and telecom.

Kotak Institutional Equities anticipates the index to remain range-bound this year, trading at a premium compared to the MSCI EM Index. They foresee downside risks to earnings growth estimates but believe strong medium-term growth prospects and improved liquidity conditions in the latter half of FY26 could limit the downside.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have withdrawn over $20 billion from Indian equities and bonds since October 2024, representing one of the most significant outflows in recent history.

Prabhudas Lilladher has cautioned that persistent global uncertainty, weak domestic demand, and sustained FDI outflows could increase volatility in both currency and FPI flows in the near term. However, they expect FII outflows to peak within 4-9 months and anticipate an improvement in India’s growth outlook in FY26, driven by higher capex spending and potential tax cuts.

Is the Worst Over?

While the current selloff marks the longest monthly losing streak, it is less severe compared to past downturns. Historical patterns suggest that the worst of FII sell-offs tend to subside within a few quarters. With improving fiscal policies, infrastructure spending, and a potential recovery in consumer demand, market participants will closely monitor liquidity trends and macroeconomic factors to assess whether Nifty’s extended slump is nearing its end.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Market Crash: Sensex Plunges 750 Points, Nifty Below 22900

Sensex Plunges 750 Points, Nifty Dips Below 22,900 Amid Global Concerns

The Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn today, with the Sensex crashing 750 points and the Nifty falling below the 22,900 mark. This decline is attributed to a combination of global cues, tepid corporate earnings, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, and ongoing foreign fund outflows. The broader market also saw a sharp selloff, with midcap and smallcap indices plunging up to 4%.

At 10:45 am, the Sensex was down 750 points, or 0.98%, at 75,447, while the Nifty was down 227 points, or 0.98%, at 22,865. Market breadth was negative, with 550 shares advancing, 2,695 declining, and 155 remaining unchanged. The BSE Midcap index shed 3%, and the Smallcap index tumbled over 4%.

Global Factors Influencing the Market

U.S. stock futures and most Asian markets faced selling pressure as investors reacted to the launch of a free, open-source AI model by Chinese startup DeepSeek, seen as a potential rival to OpenAI's ChatGPT. Additionally, the U.S. dollar strengthened after President Trump imposed retaliatory measures on Colombia. Nasdaq Composite futures slid almost 2%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 1%. Japan's Nikkei shed 0.3%, while New Zealand's benchmark fell 0.6%. In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.9%, and mainland China's CSI 300 gained 0.2%, despite disappointing manufacturing data.

Market Analyst Insights

Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst, noted that the typical pre-budget rally has not materialized. Investors are using any market upside to book profits or exit positions, leading to a weak market this week.

Foreign Fund Outflows and Earnings

India's benchmark indices concluded the previous week with their third consecutive weekly loss. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers, withdrawing a staggering ₹69,080 crore from Indian equities in January alone. The ongoing earnings season has also been a key driver of market sentiment. Results so far have been mixed, leaning slightly negative, with many companies falling short of expectations. Uncertainty around U.S.-India relations under President Trump is also contributing to investor anxiety.

Federal Reserve and Budget Anticipation

With only five trading sessions left before the Union Budget on February 1, investors are closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for January 29. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, its commentary, especially in light of President Trump's push for lower borrowing costs, will be crucial for future monetary policy direction.

Stock-Specific Movements

ICICI Bank bucked the trend, rising 0.6% after reporting higher quarterly profits. However, Bharat Electronics, JSW Steel, BPCL, IndusInd Bank, and Power Grid Corp led the laggards on the Nifty 50, slipping 1-2%. On the positive side, Britannia, HUL, ITC, ICICI Bank, and Nestle were among the top gainers, climbing 0.5-2%.

Shares of CreditAccess Grameen plunged 17% after the company revised its full-year guidance downward.

Technical Outlook

According to Prashanth Tapse of Mehta Equities, Nifty is at risk of closing below the key 23,000 level, with next support at 21,281, due to a bearish technical setup.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Sensex Plunges: Market Ends Lower, Nifty Below 23100

Market Close: Sensex Falls 330 Points, Nifty Below 23,100

The Indian stock market closed lower today, with the Sensex dropping by 330 points and the Nifty ending below the 23,100 mark. Small and mid-cap indices also experienced significant declines, losing up to 2.4% of their value, which erased a good portion of gains from previous sessions. While some sectors like IT and FMCG managed to stay positive, the overall market saw broad-based selling pressure.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 both saw sharp declines, impacting overall market sentiment. Several sectors faced heavy losses, with Nifty Pharma, Realty, Auto, and Banking indices being among the worst performers.

Key Market Indicators

Here’s a snapshot of today's market performance:

• Sensex: Closed at 76,190.46, down by 329.92 points or 0.43%.
• Nifty 50: Ended at 23,092.20, a decrease of 113.15 points or 0.49%.
• Nifty Bank: Closed at 48,367.80, down by 221.20 points or 0.46%.

Top Performers and Losers

While the overall market sentiment was negative, here are some of the day’s top movers:

• Top Gainer: HUL, closing at 2,368.10, with a gain of 46.40 points or 2.00%.
• Top Loser: Dr Reddys Labs, closing at 1,224.40, down by 65.00 points or 5.04%.

Sectoral Performance

Here's a look at how various sectors performed today:

• Best Performing Sector: Nifty FMCG, closing at 56069.30, up by 287.50 points or 0.52%.
• Worst Performing Sector: Nifty Pharma, closing at 21872.40, down by 470.90 points or 2.11%.

NSE Indian Indices Performance

A closer look at sectoral indices reveals the following:

• NIFTY Auto: -1.54%
• NIFTY IT: +0.4%
• NIFTY Pharma: -2.11%
• NIFTY FMCG: +0.52%
• NIFTY PSU Bank: -1.37%
• NIFTY Metal: -0.9%
• NIFTY Realty: -2.31%
• NIFTY Energy: -1.78%
• NIFTY Infra: -0.85%
• NIFTY Media: -2.6%

Market Breadth

The overall market breadth was weak, with 1,018 stocks advancing, 2,764 declining, and 115 remaining unchanged.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Sensex Crashes 1400 Points, Nifty Below 23000 Amid Global Jitters

Sensex Plunges Over 1,400 Points, Nifty Below 23,000 Amid Trump 2.0 Concerns, Weak Q3 Results

Market Plunge

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled on Tuesday, declining by up to 1%, as investor sentiment was negatively impacted by various global and domestic factors. These included U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats targeting BRICS nations, weak Q3 earnings, and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. Realty and consumer durable stocks led the market fall.

The BSE Sensex dropped 935.61 points, or 1.21%, to 76,137.83, while the NSE Nifty shed 233.65 points, or 1%, to 23,111.10. The volatility in global markets and mixed earnings reports contributed to the bearish mood, with the India VIX rising over 5% during the session.

Key Factors Behind the Market Decline

1. Trump’s Tariff Threats on BRICS Nations: President Donald Trump's remarks targeting BRICS countries rattled investors. On Monday, Trump reiterated his intention to impose 100% tariffs on nations reducing their reliance on the US dollar for global trade. He warned that BRICS nations will face a 100% tariff if they continue their de-dollarization efforts. India, a key member of BRICS, is particularly vulnerable to this development. Trump also announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting February, heightening concerns over global trade disruptions. According to Prashant Tapse, Senior Vice President of Research at Mehta Equities, Trump’s tariff decisions are a "wildcard for Indian markets."
2. Weak Q3 Earnings: Mixed corporate earnings also contributed to market jitters. Shares of Dixon Technologies plunged 14% after reporting a sequential decline in consolidated net profit and revenue for the December quarter. Similarly, Zomato tumbled 9% after its Q3 results revealed that Blinkit’s aggressive expansion was impacting profitability. From the realty sector, Oberoi Realty slipped 7.6% after posting numbers below market expectations.
3. Bank of Japan Rate Hike Expectations: Global markets were also unnerved by expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday. Such a move by the BOJ, which would be its first hike since July of last year, could impact borrowing costs globally.

FII Outflows and Budget Uncertainty

Persistent FII outflows continued to weigh heavily on Indian equities. The upcoming Union Budget has further heightened uncertainty, causing investors to adopt a cautious wait-and-watch approach ahead of potential policy announcements. According to Ruchit Jain, Vice President at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the India VIX has risen over 5% due to increased uncertainty ahead of the Union Budget, and ongoing FII selling remains a primary reason for the market’s decline.

Major Laggards

Major laggards in the 30-share Sensex pack included Zomato, Adani Ports, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, and Bharti Airtel.

Technical Outlook

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, noted that while 23,140 held downsides as expected, upswings failed to breach the 23370/90 resistance. He said 23370/90 remains the level to beat, and the 23550-640 objectives continue to be in play. For momentum to persist, he added, it's crucial to stay above 23330 early in the day. Otherwise, a slip to 23268/48 could occur.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Stock Market Bloodbath: Sensex and Nifty Tumble Amid Global Uncertainty

Indian Stock Market Plunges Amidst Global Uncertainty

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a sharp fall, each shedding about 1%, amidst weak global cues and profit booking. This downturn snapped a three-day winning streak, reflecting investor concerns about both domestic and international economic factors.

Market Opening and Intraday Movement

The market opened on a weak note, with both Sensex and Nifty declining significantly. At 10:50 am, the Sensex was down by 706 points, trading at 76,335.94, while the Nifty fell 190 points to 23,121.60. Market breadth showed mixed sentiments, with 1,830 shares advancing, 1,240 declining, and 119 remaining unchanged.

Global and Domestic Factors

Despite initial positive reactions to lower-than-expected US inflation figures, global market momentum faltered, impacting the Indian market. Investor sentiment was further weighed down by concerns over potential earnings slowdowns during the ongoing Q3 earnings season, as well as macroeconomic challenges. These include uncertainties around the Union Budget 2025, the US Federal Reserve's rate decisions, and stretched market valuations.

The January effect, historically characterized by market weakness, has also contributed to the downturn, with the Nifty shedding approximately 2% this month. Analysts suggest that domestic markets are oversold, with unchanged fundamentals and persistent headwinds hindering a market rebound.

Sectoral Performance

Sectoral indices presented a mixed picture. Nifty IT was the worst performer, plunging over 2% due to significant corrections in major stocks like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and HCLTech. Nifty Bank also fell over 1%, influenced by weak performances from Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Conversely, Nifty Energy, Nifty Metals, and Nifty Infra managed to post gains of nearly 1% each, supported by a decline in the dollar index, which eased commodity price pressures. Infosys shares plummeted over 5%, becoming the worst-performing stock on the Nifty 50, despite posting better-than-expected Q3 earnings. Axis Bank shares also fell nearly 5% after their Q3 results, as higher slippages and lagging deposit growth sparked concerns.

Individual Stock Movements

Reliance Industries' shares surged almost 3% after better-than-expected Q3 performance and recovery hopes. Other major gainers included Hindalco, BPCL, and Coal India. The broader market mirrored the weakness of the benchmarks, with the midcap and smallcap indices also experiencing losses.

Market Outlook

Market experts noted that while a recent rally had raised hopes, persistent macroeconomic and corporate earnings concerns have kept investors cautious. The "sell-on-rise" strategy dominates as investors await clarity on key events, including the Union Budget and global central bank policies.

Analysts emphasize the need for stability in macroeconomic conditions, improved corporate earnings, and supportive policy measures for a sustained recovery. Pockets of strength exist in sectors like energy and metals, but broader market fundamentals remain challenging.

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