Week Ahead: Key Triggers That Will Drive Indian Stock Market This Week

The Indian stock market extended its recovery for the second consecutive week, posting nearly one percent gains amid a consolidation phase. Market momentum was tempered by profit-booking following heightened geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan after the Pahalgam terrorist attack.

The Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex advanced 0.80% for the week, closing at 24,039.35 and 79,212.53 respectively. Market volatility increased with the India VIX rising by 11%, partially reversing the previous week's 23% decline.

Major Market Drivers This Week

As we enter the holiday-shortened final week of April, several critical factors will influence market direction. Investors will be closely monitoring these key triggers:

Q4 Earnings Season

Several prominent companies are scheduled to release their March quarter results for FY24-25, including BPCL, IOC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SBI, Bajaj Finance, TVS Motor, and UltraTech Cement. The current earnings season has started on a subdued note, with market experts expecting performance to improve from Q1 FY26 onwards.

Auto Sales Data

With the beginning of a new month on May 1st, monthly auto sales figures will be a focal point for investors assessing sector performance and consumer demand trends.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Market participants will closely track the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data and the final HSBC Manufacturing PMI figures to gauge economic health.

India-Pakistan Tensions

The escalating geopolitical situation following the terror attack in Kashmir that claimed 26 lives has introduced caution among investors. Historically, the Indian market has demonstrated resilience during geopolitical disruptions, but sentiment may remain cautious in the near term.

Foreign Investment Flows

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned aggressive net buyers, injecting ₹17,800 crore into the cash segment during the past week, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) added around ₹1,132 crore. This shift in FII strategy is particularly notable given the current geopolitical tensions.

Primary Market Activity

The upcoming week will see significant action in the primary market:

• Ather Energy IPO - marking the first mainboard IPO of the new fiscal year 2025-26
• Four new issues opening for bidding in the SME segment
• Tankup Engineers shares listing on either BSE SME or NSE SME

Global Factors

Global market stability has been supported by ongoing discussions between the United States and its trading partners regarding new trade agreements, which have helped ease concerns about tariff impacts on global commerce.

Two strong factors currently driving FII flows into India include:

• The reversal of the sustained rise in the US dollar, with the dollar index falling from a peak of 111 in mid-January to around 99 now
• Expected decline in US growth this year contrasting with India's resilient economy, which is projected to maintain growth above 6%

The positive market momentum has been supported by progress in India-US bilateral trade agreements and easing concerns over US-China trade disputes, both contributing to improved investor sentiment.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Week Ahead: RBI Policy, Trump Tariffs, Q4 Results Among Key Triggers for Indian Stock Market

The Indian stock market started the new fiscal year FY26 on a weak note, with benchmark indices ending sharply lower last week and snapping a two-week winning streak. Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump's unexpected tariff hikes have spooked investors across domestic and global markets alike.

As we enter the second week of April, several critical market triggers will determine the direction of Indian equities. Let's examine the key factors that investors should monitor closely.

Last Week's Market Performance

The domestic equity benchmarks fell significantly, dragged primarily by weak global cues and renewed concerns over a potential trade war. During the week, the BSE Sensex tanked 2,050.23 points (2.64%) while the NSE Nifty declined 614.8 points (2.61%). The Nifty 50 ended the week at 22,904.40, while the Sensex settled at 75,364.69, near the week's low.

On Friday alone, the 30-share BSE index slumped over 900 points, crashing below the 76,000 level due to an across-the-board sell-off. A steep decline in the US stock markets further dampened hopes of recovery in domestic equities.

Key Market Triggers for the Coming Week

RBI Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel will begin deliberations this week on its first policy verdict for FY26. The outcome of the MPC meeting and interest rate decision on April 9 will be a major market trigger.

Market experts anticipate that this policy meeting will provide crucial insights into the central bank's stance and India's economic outlook. Many analysts foresee another 25 basis points interest rate cut, which could potentially benefit rate-sensitive sectors if the outcome is favorable.

Q4 Earnings Season Kickoff

The March quarter earnings season begins this week, with IT giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on Thursday, April 10. The software services leader may also declare a final dividend for FY25 on the same day.

According to market analysts, the initial outlook remains subdued, with risks of further downward revisions to earnings growth, largely due to tepid demand and continued margin pressures. The IT sector specifically is expected to report soft numbers, and investor sentiment will depend heavily on management commentary about future prospects.

Persistent global growth concerns and potential elevated inflation in the US may lead companies to delay discretionary IT spending, potentially dampening the sector's near-term outlook.

Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Tensions

The market sell-off was initially triggered by the US President's decision to impose steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27% levy on select Indian goods. This move has reignited fears of a global trade war, prompting broad-based risk aversion across emerging markets.

Market sentiment further weakened amid rising US Treasury yields and lingering inflationary concerns, which dampened hopes of an early rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Volatility has remained elevated, with the India VIX index rising significantly, reflecting heightened caution ahead of quarterly earnings and ongoing election-related developments.

Investors will closely monitor any countermeasures implemented by global trade partners, which could further exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The cautious sentiment is reflected in the sustained rally in gold and bond prices, underscoring a pronounced shift toward safe-haven assets.

Macroeconomic Data Releases

Key macroeconomic indicators - the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for March 2025 - are scheduled for release on Friday, April 11. However, as per the Statistics Ministry's timeline, the CPI inflation data might be released on April 15, since April 14 is marked as a holiday to observe Ambedkar Jayanti.

These data points will provide crucial insights into India's economic performance and could significantly influence market sentiment.

Foreign Institutional Investor Activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned aggressive sellers last week, pulling out approximately ₹13,730 crore from the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some support with net inflows of around ₹5,632 crore.

The trend of FPIs turning buyers in March changed in early April when they turned sellers again following President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs. The steeper-than-expected tariffs have raised concerns that the US economy might slip into stagflation, triggering massive selling in US markets where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost above 10% in just two days.

The total FPI selling in India up to April 5 stood at ₹10,354 crore. However, the steep decline in the dollar index to 102 is considered favorable for capital flows to emerging economies like India, although FPIs are likely to remain in a wait-and-watch mode before turning buyers again.

Global Economic Indicators

Several important global economic indicators will be released this week:

• The minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Wednesday, April 9
• China's March CPI inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, April 10
• The US inflation and core CPI data will be released on Thursday, April 10
• The February UK GDP data is scheduled for release on Friday, April 11

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, Nifty 50's immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door towards 22,100. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone.

Primary Market Update

The primary market will not witness any action this week, with no new initial public offerings (IPO) or listings slated across the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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Stock Market Week Ahead: GDP Data, F&O Expiry, Global Cues

Week Ahead: India Q3 GDP, F&O Expiry, and Global Cues to Drive Market

The Indian stock market is set for a crucial week, with key economic data releases, the expiry of February's derivative contracts, and global cues expected to influence market trends. After a corrective phase, investors will be closely watching for triggers that could lead to a recovery.

Key Market Triggers

Several factors will dictate the Indian stock market's direction in the coming week:

• India Q3 GDP Data: The release of GDP data for the third quarter of FY25 is scheduled for Friday, February 28. Analysts project a deceleration in GDP growth to around 6.4%, raising concerns about corporate profitability and economic stability.
• F&O Expiry: The scheduled expiry of February's derivative contracts is likely to add to market volatility.
• Trump Tariffs: Announcements related to trade tariffs by the US President could impact market sentiment.
• INR-USD Rate: Fluctuations in the rupee-dollar exchange rate will be closely monitored.
• FII/FPI Fund Movement: Foreign fund outflows have been a persistent concern, and their trend will be crucial.
• Global Cues: Global macroeconomic data and market cues will also play a significant role.

Recent Market Performance

The Indian stock market has been trading within a tight range, extending its corrective phase. Both the Sensex and Nifty 50 closed near their weekly lows, dragged down by auto, banking, and pharma stocks. However, midcap and smallcap indices rebounded by approximately 1.5% each after a sharp decline, offering some relief.

Foreign Fund Outflows and Corporate Earnings

Persistent foreign fund outflows and concerns over potential tariffs have kept market sentiment subdued. India's corporate earnings have remained under pressure, with Nifty 50 companies reporting modest 5% growth in the October-December quarter of FY25.

Expert Insights

"India is currently lagging behind its Asian peers on high outflows. The "sell India, buy China" strategy yields returns. The market's mood is cautious, with pessimistic sentiments likely to linger until corporate earnings improve markedly and a conducive environment with easy global liquidity and stabilised currency emerges," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Primary Market Activity

This week, the primary market will witness a softer trend, with a few IPOs and listings slated across the mainboard and SME segments.

Global Economic Data

The week is set to be dynamic for global markets, driven by key macroeconomic data releases. Market sentiment will be shaped by GDP, Housing, inflation, infrastructure, and core PCE data.

• US New Home Sales data will be released on Wednesday, February 26.
• The US GDP Growth Rate (QoQ) Second Estimates for Q4 will be released on Thursday, February 27.

FII Activity

Foreign investor sentiment remains weak, with significant outflows from foreign institutional investors (FII) since the market peak in September. Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, noted that the massive selling has resulted in the Nifty yielding negative returns of four per cent YTD.

Technical Outlook

Technically, a decisive break below 22,700 in the Nifty 50 could trigger the next leg of the downtrend, potentially dragging the index to 22,500 and then 22,000.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not represent financial advice. The views expressed are those of the sources cited and not necessarily those of this website or its management. Investing in equities or other financial instruments carries the risk of financial loss. Readers must exercise due caution and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. We are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of decisions made based on this article. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment.

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